EV Calculator
Back to the calculator.
Quick EV calculator
Give as % (60,2) or 0–1 (0,602). Comma or dot is fine.
If left empty, p is used. If this is filled, we derive p = 1 / fair odds.
EV
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EV%
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Parsed p
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Fair odds
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How to use this calculator
- Enter the offered decimal odds (comma or dot both OK).
- Provide either the fair probability p (as percent like
60,2or as 0–1 like0,602) or the fair odds field (which overrides p). - Read the results: EV, EV%, parsed p and implied fair odds.
- Interpretation: if EV% > 0 the price beats fair odds → value bet.
Expected value (EV)
With fair probability p and offered decimal odds o:
EV = o·p − 1 and EV% = 100 × EV.
Finding p
Use no-vig probabilities from a sharp book (e.g. Pinnacle) to estimate p. For 2-way markets:
pA = (1/oA) / ((1/oA) + (1/oB)), pB = 1 − pA. For 1X2, sum across three outcomes.
Interpretation
- If
EV% > 0, the softbook price beats fair odds — value bet. - EV% around zero means the price is fair after removing the margin.
Example
If p = 0.6020 and a softbook offers o = 1.72,
then EV = 1.72 × 0.6020 − 1 ≈ 0.0354 → EV% ≈ 3.54%.
Need the big EV/Kelly tool? → FairOdds calculator.