Do I need the full market for accurate no-vig?

Ideally yes. When the list is incomplete you can enable the Field (others) assumption to bring the total to 100% and get a conservative EV.

Why don't my no-vig probabilities sum to 100%?

With a complete list they do. With Field on and an underround, the remainder is assigned to the synthetic Field row, so the listed runners can sum to less than 100%.

Outright Edge Finder

Q: Can I switch odds format?

Yes. The table display toggles between Decimal, American and Fractional. The softbook input accepts decimal, +150/-200 or 5/2.

Paste Pinnacle outright (winner) odds → we remove the overround to get fair no-vig probabilities. Pick a single softbook price to see EV% and a Kelly stake suggestion.

Pinnacle outrights (one per line: “Name 3.170”) We accept comma or dot. Last number on the line is read as decimal odds.

Softbook selection

Bankroll (€)

Kelly divisor (1=full, 2=half…)

Stake rounding step (€)

Display odds as Inputs remain decimal (except softbook field also accepts +150 or 5/2).

Assumptions Assume Field (others) fills to 100% if your list is incomplete (conservative EV).

Selected (fair p)

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Selected (fair odds)

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EV%

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Recommended stake (€)

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All runners (no-vig)

Columns: Pinnacle odds, implied p, no-vig p, fair odds, spread% (share of margin). Field appears if your list is incomplete and the assumption is on.

#	Name	Pinnacle	Implied p	No-vig p	Fair odds	Spread%

What is an outright market?

Outrights (also called futures) are “winner” markets such as US Open Women — Winner or Premier League — Champion. The book posts a list of runners with prices that usually sum to more than 100% implied probability — this is the bookmaker margin (overround). To evaluate a softbook price on your selection, you want the fair, no-vig probability of that runner.

How our no-vig math works (outrights)

For each runner with decimal odds oᵢ, implied probability is 1/oᵢ. We compute the sum S = Σ (1/oᵢ).
If your list is complete, fair no-vig probabilities are pᵢ = (1/oᵢ) / S and fair odds are 1/pᵢ.
If your list is incomplete and “Assume Field” is on, we keep the listed runners at their implied values and assign the missing share to a synthetic Field (others) so the total is 100%. This yields a conservative EV for your selection.
EV for a softbook price o_soft is EV = o_soft · pᵢ − 1. Kelly stake fraction uses b = o_soft − 1 and f* = (b·pᵢ − (1−pᵢ)) / b, floored at 0, then scaled by your divisor and rounded to your step.

Input format tips

Paste one runner per line; the last number on the line is read as the decimal price.
The softbook field accepts decimal, +150 / −200 American, or fractional 5/2.
Click “Copy share link” to save state in the URL hash and send it to a teammate.

Example

If a runner’s fair no-vig probability is 14.0% (fair odds ≈ 7.14) and your softbook offers 8.50, then EV = 8.50×0.14 − 1 = +19%. With a half-Kelly divisor of 2 and a €1,000 bankroll, you’ll see a practical stake suggestion, rounded to your step.

Limitations

Outright markets can change quickly after injuries or draws; always re-paste fresh prices.
Field assumption is conservative but not perfect — if your list is incomplete, EV can be understated.
Kelly is volatile; many use half- or quarter-Kelly to reduce variance.

FAQ

Do I need the full market?

Ideally yes. If you only have the top part of the board, enable the Field assumption to keep totals at 100% and get a conservative EV.

Why are my no-vig probabilities not summing to 100%?

They will if your list is complete. With Field on and an underround (S<1), we allocate the remainder to the Field row, so listed runners can sum to <100%.

Can I switch odds format?

Yes. The table display toggles between Decimal, American and Fractional. The softbook input accepts all three.

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