Closing Line Value (CLV): the simplest way to validate your EV

Understand CLV in plain English: measure it, read it, and use it with EV, Kelly and Drawdown to make smarter decisions.

Open EV Calculator

TL;DR

  • CLV% = (your_odds / closing_odds) − 1. Positive → you beat the market.
  • Across a big sample, positive average CLV means your EV estimates are probably real.
  • Track CLV per bet and per market; drop bets that don’t beat close.
  • Combine EV, Kelly and Drawdown to grow safely.

Related: Edge Finder • Kelly Calculator • Max Drawdown

1) What is CLV and why it matters

Closing Line Value (CLV) checks whether your price beat the market’s final consensus (the closing line). The closing price is usually the most efficient. If you consistently get better odds than close, your process likely finds real edges—even if short-term ROI is noisy.

Formula (decimal): CLV% = (your_odds / closing_odds) − 1

Example: you took 1.95, market closed 1.85 → CLV% = 1.95/1.85 − 1 = +5.4%.

2) How to measure CLV correctly

  1. Same market & line. Match rules: ML vs AH, OT included, void/retirement policies.
  2. Use a sharp close (e.g., Pinnacle) or the most liquid book’s closing odds.
  3. Log both prices with a timestamp: your_odds and closing_odds.
  4. Compute CLV% per bet and track the rolling average (e.g., last 200 bets).

3) What’s a “good” CLV?

  • 0% to +1% – borderline; may be noise.
  • +1% to +2% – promising on liquid markets.
  • +2% to +4% – strong; keep doing what works.
  • > +4% – excellent; double-check you’re comparing the same line (no boosts/promo mis-match).

Rule: if ROI is flat but your average CLV is positive, variance is the likely culprit. Grow the sample and keep stakes conservative.

4) CLV ↔ EV: how they work together

EV uses your estimate of true probability (often de-vigged from a sharp line or your model). CLV checks if the market later agreed. Filter bets to those with EV% ≥ threshold and that beat closing on average.

  1. Use Edge Finder to compare softbook vs sharp → get fair (no-vig) probabilities and EV%.
  2. Bet only if EV% ≥ 1–2% on liquid markets.
  3. Log the bet; after close, store the closing_odds.
  4. Review monthly: average CLV%, EV%, ROI, drawdowns — prune what doesn’t beat close.

5) Practical examples

Example A (2-way)

You bet 1.92; sharp closes 1.88 → CLV% = +2.1%. Your EV at the time was +1.6%. Even if it lost, the process looks good.

Example B (1X2)

You took Home 2.40; sharp closes 2.55 → CLV% = −5.9%. Re-check: same line/rules? Was it a boost/promo? If not, your edge filter may be too loose.

6) Use CLV to improve your edge filter

  • By source: Which softbook/league/day/time yields positive CLV? Focus there.
  • By odds range: Longshots (>3.00) often have worse CLV → use stricter thresholds.
  • By lead time: Are you betting too early/late? Shift to when your CLV peaks.
  • By market type: Maybe you beat close on 1X2 but not on player props — specialize.

7) Sizing with Kelly while you learn

Until your CLV record is solid, use fractional Kelly (0.25–0.5×) with a per-bet cap. Simulate bankroll paths with Max Drawdown to pick a risk level you can stick with.

Open Kelly Calculator

8) Common mistakes (avoid these)

  • Comparing different lines/rules (ML vs AH, OT included, void policies).
  • Mixing boosted/promotional odds into CLV without flagging them.
  • Tiny samples (50–100 bets). Think in hundreds.
  • Cherry-picking winners — measure every bet.
  • Forgetting de-vig: raw implied % inflate EV and misguide staking.

9) Quick setup (copy this)

Log per bet: datetime, league, market, line, your_odds, stake, sharp_close_odds, result

  • Compute CLV% = your_odds / closing_odds − 1
  • Compute EV% (via EV Calculator or Edge Finder)
  • Review monthly: avg CLV%, EV%, ROI, and max drawdown
  • Keep only bet types with positive avg CLV and EV ≥ threshold